The 2–3 Week Intelligence Window

Policymakers can rarely act on 10‑year forecasts or 24‑hour warnings, but they can adjust to scenarios over a 2–3 week horizon. Analysts should deliver short‑term scenario trees with signposts that indicate which path is unfolding and what to do next. This reframes 'prediction' as near‑term decision support rather than distant prophecy. — Aligning analysis to an actionable time window could reduce high‑profile 'intel failures' by matching products to real political and bureaucratic constraints.