Much of the pre‑modern 'shaft' of the GDP hockey stick rests on modeled estimates from the Maddison Project, which rely on thin, indirect evidence and modern PPP conversions. The article traces 1 CE figures (e.g., Roman Italy’s $1,407) to a single 2009 paper and shows how these numbers gain cultural authority despite methodological fragility. Treating them as precise can distort how we compare ancient and developing‑world living standards.
— If our iconic growth chart leans on speculative inputs, progress narratives and policy arguments built on it need more humility about measurement error.
Inquisitive Bird
2025.10.05
82% relevant
The article explicitly criticizes pre‑1820 Maddison estimates as 'largely guesswork' (quoting Gregory Clark that they are 'fictions') and argues that using those figures to assert historical wealth is a category error, directly reinforcing the idea that iconic long‑run GDP series rest on fragile inputs.
2025.09.01
100% relevant
Maddison Project 2023 uses Scheidel & Friesen (2009) to peg Roman‑era GDP per capita in 2011 PPP dollars and compares it to modern Malawi/Madagascar.
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