Three‑factor provincial crime model

A simple, interpretable model — immigration share, population density, and geographic location (latitude/longitude) — explains a large fraction of cross‑province variation in recorded crime in Italy using ISTAT 2023 data. The approach foregrounds structural urbanization and regional effects while testing the independent contribution of immigrant presence after holding density and geography constant. — If robust, this parsimonious template reframes debates that treat immigration as the primary driver of crime by showing where policy levers (urban planning, policing resources, local governance) matter more than national rhetoric.