Threshold framing inflates embryo‑selection benefits

Updated: 2026.05.04 1H ago 1 sources
Companies that sell polygenic embryo selection often report percent risk reductions based on liability‑threshold models and binary disease cutoffs. Small downward shifts in a continuous trait (e.g., BMI) can look like large reductions in 'disease' incidence when an arbitrary threshold is used, misrepresenting the true phenotypic or clinical benefit. — If policymakers, clinicians, and prospective parents take those framed risk numbers at face value, markets and regulation will develop around an inflated sense of benefit, driving ethical, economic and health‑policy consequences.

Sources

What we talk about when we talk about risk - by Sasha Gusev
2026.05.04 100% relevant
The article critiques the liability‑threshold model and uses the BMI>40 obesity example to show how a tiny average BMI reduction translates into a 50% 'risk reduction' under the threshold framing; it warns embryo‑selection companies exploit this statistical intuition gap.
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