Companies that sell polygenic embryo selection often report percent risk reductions based on liability‑threshold models and binary disease cutoffs. Small downward shifts in a continuous trait (e.g., BMI) can look like large reductions in 'disease' incidence when an arbitrary threshold is used, misrepresenting the true phenotypic or clinical benefit.
— If policymakers, clinicians, and prospective parents take those framed risk numbers at face value, markets and regulation will develop around an inflated sense of benefit, driving ethical, economic and health‑policy consequences.
2026.05.04
100% relevant
The article critiques the liability‑threshold model and uses the BMI>40 obesity example to show how a tiny average BMI reduction translates into a 50% 'risk reduction' under the threshold framing; it warns embryo‑selection companies exploit this statistical intuition gap.
← Back to All Ideas