Trade Deals and Cartel Violence

Cross‑border trade liberalization can unintentionally raise trafficking profits along newly efficient transport corridors, driving lethal cartel competition in connecting municipalities. Empirical comparisons of homicide trends on predicted least‑cost trafficking routes before and after a trade agreement (NAFTA) show substantive increases in drug‑related killings localized to those corridors. — This reframes trade policy as also a security policy: negotiators and implementers must weigh how reduced frictions and new routes alter illicit markets and local violence, and coordinate trade liberalization with targeted law‑enforcement, customs, and development measures.