Trade‑Partner Split Shapes Brazil Vote

A measurable divide in Brazilian public opinion over China and the United States is becoming an electoral axis: candidates’ explicit orientations toward Beijing or Washington (Lula toward China, Flavio Bolsonaro toward the U.S./Trump) turn foreign‑policy alignment into a salient domestic campaign issue. The survey provides baseline levels of trust and preference that can predict whether trade and geopolitics will tilt voters in the Oct. 2026 runoff. — If electoral choice in Brazil is increasingly coded by China vs. U.S. orientation, the 2026 ballot will matter for trade patterns and regional geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere.