Training ROI Is Procyclical

Updated: 2025.08.25 1M ago 1 sources
Earnings gains from retraining were driven by the tightest labor‑market years. Training appears to signal value best when firms are hiring aggressively and 'reach deeper' into the skills market. — Workforce policy should time and design programs to boom conditions—or add hiring incentives—rather than expect countercyclical miracles in slack markets.

Sources

How Retrainable are AI-Exposed Workers?
Tyler Cowen 2025.08.25 100% relevant
Paper notes positive returns 'in all groups' were concentrated in recent tight labor markets.
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