Transnistria: Russia’s weak link

Updated: 2025.10.03 18D ago 2 sources
The article contends that if Moldova consolidates its EU trajectory, it could exploit Russia’s stranded contingent in Transnistria—an isolated enclave with no land bridge—to force a withdrawal or collapse, amounting to a clear defeat for Moscow. It ties this scenario to the current parliamentary election, heavy diaspora turnout, EU leaders’ overt backing, and domestic moves against pro‑Kremlin actors. — It reframes how small states can impose strategic losses on great powers by leveraging enclave vulnerabilities and political alignment, not just battlefield size.

Sources

Moldova Chooses Europe Over Russia
Dalibor Rohac 2025.10.03 80% relevant
The piece argues Moldova should be rapidly drawn into the EU after PAS’s majority win and notes the sticking point of Transnistria with Russian 'peacekeepers,' directly intersecting the thesis that consolidating Moldova’s Western alignment could isolate and pressure Russia’s stranded force in Transnistria.
An Election That Could Redraw Europe’s Map
Nikola Mikovic 2025.09.27 100% relevant
The lede’s claim that Moldova could 'militarily defeat the Russian Federation,' coupled with Macron–Merz–Tusk’s pre‑election visit and arrests over an alleged riot plot in Chisinau.
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