Turkey’s Coming Succession War

Erdoğan’s long rule has transferred military and institutional power into a personalized palace network; as his health, legitimacy or grip wanes, rival factions inside the AKP, the security services and business–political patrons will contest power, producing domestic instability and foreign-policy unpredictability. That contest is likely to combine patronage fights, legal purges and regional posturing rather than a clean electoral handover. — How Turkey manages an elite succession will affect NATO cohesion, migration flows, regional security in the Middle East and the resilience of democratic institutions across the region.