Two Talent Trajectories

Top adult achievers and childhood prodigies mostly form two different populations: early prodigies tend to specialize and show fast early peaks, while most world‑class adult performers emerge later after broader experiences and gradual development. Policies and institutions that presume one single path to excellence risk missing or misallocating support for the other trajectory. — Recognizing two distinct developmental trajectories suggests rebalancing education, talent pipelines, and funding so both early‑specialization supports and opportunities for late development (broad exposure, cross‑training, mid‑career retraining) are preserved.