When large U.S. RCTs find guaranteed income yields null welfare gains, policy coalitions shift. Support may pivot from universal cash to institution-building in education, health, and housing.
— Challenges UBI orthodoxy, redirects anti-poverty budgets, and raises evidence standards for social policy.
Matt Bruenig
2025.08.21
80% relevant
Kelsey Piper’s column publicly downgrading expectations for cash programs on the basis of recent RCTs, and Bruenig’s rebuttal, signal a coalition-level recalibration over UBI/cash—moving the debate from hype to retrenchment and counter-framing about welfare’s aims.
Arnold Kling
2025.08.20
92% relevant
The article cites Kelsey Piper’s synthesis of RCTs finding minimal measurable gains from cash transfers and frames the fallout—cash aid is easy to evaluate and thus easy to criticize—as evidence that the GBI/guaranteed-income push faces a data-driven setback that will shift coalitions.
Kelsey Piper
2025.08.19
100% relevant
The article synthesizes multiple large randomized U.S. guaranteed-income studies showing no sustained benefits and flags media bias toward small positive pilots.
← Back to All Ideas