U.S. Undocumented Population May Double

A new MIT‑Yale PLOS ONE model using operational data (visa overstays, border apprehensions, deportations, emigration/mortality rates) estimates ~22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., versus the widely cited 11.3 million from survey extrapolations; even under conservative assumptions the paper finds ~16.7 million. The paper argues survey undercount and misreporting bias likely make traditional estimates too low and that administrative inflow/outflow accounting gives a very different picture of scale. — If the undocumented population is many millions larger than assumed, it reframes debates over fiscal costs, enforcement capacity, legalization/amnesty scale and public‑health and education planning.