Undocumented population could be 16–22M

A new PLOS ONE study using border apprehensions, visa‑overstay records and demographic outflow assumptions estimates the U.S. undocumented population at roughly 22.1 million under baseline assumptions and no less than 16.7 million under very conservative parameters — far above the commonly cited 11.3 million survey‑based figure. The paper spans 1990–2016 and explicitly models inflows and outflows rather than relying on self‑reported survey counts. — If correct, this recalibration changes the scale of policy choices on enforcement, public‑service provision, and fiscal impact and should reframe debates that currently assume a much smaller population.