Undocumented Population Could Be 22 Million

MIT and Yale researchers use operational data — visa overstays, border apprehensions, deportations, mortality and emigration — in a flow model covering 1990–2016 and estimate about 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., with a conservative lower bound of 16.7 million. Their method argues survey‑based counts (the commonly cited ~11.3M) undercount a hidden population that avoids detection. — If true, the scale change should reshape resource allocation, enforcement vs. regularization debates, and political messaging around immigration and public‑service planning.