Treating the all‑adult approval average (not just likely‑voter models) as the baseline frames presidential popularity as a measure of national legitimacy rather than an electoral forecasting tool. That shifts emphasis from short‑term turnout mechanics to broader public opinion — meaning approval gaps matter for democratic authority even when they don't predict votes.
— If newsrooms and analysts adopt an all‑adult baseline, debates about presidential mandate, crisis legitimacy, and governing license will center on public sentiment rather than turnout models alone.
Nate Silver
2026.11.02
100% relevant
Nate Silver’s bulletin defaults to the all‑adult poll version and explicitly justifies that 'all Americans have a say in how popular the president is,' providing a concrete dataset and methodological choice to illustrate this framing.
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