Use all‑adult approval as legitimacy metric

Updated: 2026.11.02 1D ago 1 sources
Treating the all‑adult approval average (not just likely‑voter models) as the baseline frames presidential popularity as a measure of national legitimacy rather than an electoral forecasting tool. That shifts emphasis from short‑term turnout mechanics to broader public opinion — meaning approval gaps matter for democratic authority even when they don't predict votes. — If newsrooms and analysts adopt an all‑adult baseline, debates about presidential mandate, crisis legitimacy, and governing license will center on public sentiment rather than turnout models alone.

Sources

How popular is Donald Trump?
Nate Silver 2026.11.02 100% relevant
Nate Silver’s bulletin defaults to the all‑adult poll version and explicitly justifies that 'all Americans have a say in how popular the president is,' providing a concrete dataset and methodological choice to illustrate this framing.
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