Vendor Productivity Estimates as Macro Signals

When AI firms publish numerical estimates of model productivity (e.g., Anthropic on Claude), those figures function as real‑time signals that affect investor expectations, hiring plans, and policy debates, regardless of how representative they are. Treating vendor‑issued productivity metrics as a distinct class of public data—requiring disclosure standards and independent audit—would improve market and policy responses. — Vendor productivity claims can materially move markets and public policy, so standards for transparency and independent verification are needed to avoid mispricing and misgovernance.