Veto points predict reform success

A global dataset of 3,590 reform attempts (189 countries, 2005–2022) shows that the number and nature of approval veto points strongly predict whether a regulatory change will pass. Richer countries attempt and pass more reforms overall (and can offset losers more cheaply), while technological reforms — which face fewer procedural vetoes — have higher success rates than administrative or legal changes. — Framing reform success around veto points and compensation capacity reframes debates about deregulation and development: change is institutional, not just ideological, and policy design should target approval chokepoints and loser‑compensation mechanisms.