Vice Presidents Pay for Unpopular Presidents

Serving as the vice president to a deeply unpopular president often becomes a career liability: the VP gets branded by association, loses independent political capital, and faces weakened nomination prospects. Nate Silver shows this dynamic in real time with JD Vance — whose market/poll odds fell as Trump-era unpopularity and midterm weaknesses mounted and his public disputes over the Iran War further undercut his standing. — This reframes succession and primary strategy: parties may avoid promoting VPs as heirs, critics inside administrations are incentivized or punished differently, and voters’ treatment of second‑tier leaders matters for who runs and wins.