A repeatable dynamic: after long tenures, illiberal incumbents become vulnerable not just to policy backlash but to mobilized voter fatigue and broad coalitions that frame the contest as restoring normal politics. If true, opposition coalitions can succeed by stressing routine governance, economic weariness, and democratic normalcy rather than ideological purity.
— If this dynamic holds, it reframes how opposition movements should contest entrenched populists and how international actors assess the resilience of illiberal governments.
Ben Sixsmith
2026.04.13
100% relevant
The concrete event: Viktor Orbán was voted out after 16 years in power (reported by the author as the central fact of the piece).
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