Wagered Bayesian Public Adjudication

Wealthy individuals and platforms can institutionalize public adjudication of contested scientific or factual claims by funding formal Bayesian analyses paired with monetary bets and staged judged debates. This creates a marketplace for 'epistemic settlement' that can lend swift resolution and attention but risks gaming (judge selection, asymmetric resources), over‑reliance on numeric models for fuzzy problems, and legitimacy capture by funders. — If this format spreads it will reshape how disputed public‑science issues are decided and perceived—channeling epistemic authority through bet mechanics and converting scientific controversy into media events with legal/financial incentives.