War and prices shift the generic ballot

Polling averages are showing Democrats with a modest lead, but short‑term events — namely public opposition to the Iran War plus rising gas and mortgage costs — are correlated with falling presidential approval and can move the generic congressional ballot rapidly. Treating the generic ballot as a dynamic composite metric that explicitly tracks war sentiment and consumer cost indicators improves near‑term forecasting of House control. — If war sentiment and macro cost shocks reliably move the generic ballot, political campaigns and forecasters must treat midterm risk as event‑driven and time‑sensitive rather than fixed months out.