Warming Could Shift Africa’s Malaria Burden

Updated: 2026.10.05 1H ago 1 sources
Climate change may reduce malaria suitability in already‑hot lowland tropics (where transmission is currently intense) while expanding risk into cooler highlands and marginal zones; the net global effect depends on what happens in the high-burden regions of West and Central Africa. That means future malaria policy must couple climate projections, local temperature‑suitability curves, and region‑specific control capacity rather than assuming uniform worsening. — This reframes climate–disease debate from a simple 'more warming = more malaria' slogan into a regionally uneven risk map that has major implications for where to invest in health systems and adaptation.

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What impact will climate change have on malaria?
Hannah Ritchie 2026.10.05 100% relevant
Our World in Data article: empirical thermal suitability curve for Anopheles–Plasmodium (peak ~25°C, drop <16°C and >34°C) and the data showing >95% of malaria deaths occur in sub‑Saharan Africa, concentrated in West Africa.
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