Wars Can Prop Up Authoritarian Leaders

External conflicts that weaken neighboring rivals can create economic and geopolitical windfalls (trade routes, energy transit, defense contracts) that shore up an incumbent regime’s legitimacy and fiscal capacity. Turkey provides a concrete example: intercepted Iranian missiles have political effects beyond physical damage, and a weaker Iran could expand Ankara’s strategic role and defense sales even as inflation and refugee risks complicate domestic politics. — If true, the idea implies that Western policymakers must weigh how kinetic or coercive actions — and the resulting regional balance shifts — may inadvertently strengthen authoritarian incumbents and change incentives for democracy promotion.