Weekly approval swings mean‑revert

Updated: 2025.09.30 21D ago 3 sources
YouGov’s long‑run series shows that most one‑week moves in Trump’s net approval reverse the next week (59% of declines bounce; 66% of increases fall back). Single‑week dips and spikes are often noise or regression to the mean, not durable shifts. Analysts should wait for multi‑week confirmation before calling a trend. — This tempers hot‑take coverage of polls and promotes better standards for identifying real opinion shifts in electoral politics.

Sources

A slight Trump approval rebound, shutdown chances, Comey, vaccines, and the economy: September 26 - 29, 2025 Economist/YouGov Poll
2025.09.30 90% relevant
The poll notes that across Trump’s first and second terms, weekly rises in approval are more likely to be followed by declines and vice versa, directly echoing the mean‑reversion heuristic for interpreting approval trends.
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Nate Silver 2025.09.22 86% relevant
Silver emphasizes Trump’s remarkably steady approval and notes the only notable drop this term coincided with April tariff moves, reinforcing the caution against over‑reading week‑to‑week swings except when tied to salient shocks.
Trump's net approval is way down. Will the drop last?
2025.09.22 100% relevant
This week’s −18 net approval and YouGov’s tally: 74 of 126 weekly declines were followed by increases; 74 of 112 increases were followed by declines.
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