When Evidence Splits Coalitions

Political arguments rarely persuade, but new, diagnostic evidence can reprice the social costs of affiliation and trigger intra‑coalition defections. The Epstein files debate reportedly fractured parts of the MAGA coalition by making prior loyalties costlier to maintain. The author promises a general model of such 'evidence‑triggered' shifts. — This reframes persuasion strategy: arguments move people when they alter coalition identity incentives, not when they merely assert moral truths.