Will AGI Erase Capital’s Share?

Updated: 2026.01.05 24D ago 1 sources
Tyler Cowen sketches two thought experiments for a future in which extremely capable AI (AGI) drives capital’s income share toward zero: (1) if capital and human labor are persistent complements, astronomical capital intensification dilutes measured capital income; (2) if AGI is a perfect substitute for human labor, the abundance of capitalized intelligence could make capital effectively free and unpriced. Both are presented as reductios but invite concrete modeling and policy attention. — If robust, this possibility would reorder tax policy, redistribution, ownership rules, and industrial strategy — it changes who gets paid in the economy and therefore who should be regulated, taxed, or supported.

Sources

The wisdom of Garett Jones
Tyler Cowen 2026.01.05 100% relevant
Tyler Cowen’s January 5, 2026 post summarizing Garrett Jones’s two cases for capital‑share collapse and Basil Halperin’s comments that such an outcome is premature provides the concrete thought experiment and interlocutors (Jones, Cowen, Halperin) that motivate the idea.
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