Wishful Voting Fuels Polarization

Voters' rising expectation that their party will win (political wishful thinking) doesn't just reflect enthusiasm — it backstops partisan identity, so when expectations are unmet it intensifies hostility toward the other side instead of moderating views. Longitudinal evidence from 1952–2024 shows hopeful expectations climbed markedly (a spike around 2012 and very high levels by 2024) and that stronger expectations in one cycle predict increased animosity in the next. — If expectation inflation mediates polarization, democracies face a self‑reinforcing cycle where hopeful forecasting preserves grievance and undermines post‑loss reconciliation, affecting turnout, norms, and interparty cooperation.