Women as coalition canary

A rising rate of disapproval among women who previously voted for a party leader can act as an early, high‑leverage indicator of coalition stress even before broad party switching occurs. Such soft defections (disapproval without full vote switching) signal turnout and persuasion risks that campaign strategists and pollsters should treat as an early warning for midterm and national races. — If women’s disapproval functions as an early-warning signal, parties and media will need to track intra-coalition approval gaps to anticipate electoral shifts and craft targeted responses.