Polygenic scores predict IQ from birth

Updated: 2026.01.12 16D ago 11 sources
The review reports that genome‑wide polygenic scores from IQ GWAS now explain about 4% of intelligence variance, and over 10% when combined with education GWAS. Because DNA is fixed, these scores predict outcomes as well at birth as later in life, enabling longitudinal research without repeated testing. — Treating intelligence polygenic scores as early, causal predictors reshapes debates on education policy, inequality, and the ethics of using genetic information in research and institutions.

Sources

Why are intelligent people more liberal?
Aporia 2026.01.12 90% relevant
The article cites recent work (Edwards et al.) that uses a polygenic score for intelligence and sibling comparisons to argue for a causal link between measured intelligence and liberal views; that directly intersects with the existing idea that PGS can predict cognitive traits and be used in social‑science causal work.
Ten Myths About Human Genetics That Refuse to Die
Davide Piffer 2026.01.12 75% relevant
Piffer critiques common public and journalistic misuses of genetic claims about intelligence and emphasizes limits and provenance of PGS — this ties to the existing idea that PGS for cognitive traits are predictive but limited and need careful interpretation.
12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ
2026.01.04 62% relevant
While the post does not discuss polygenic scores (PGS) explicitly, its emphasis on high heritability and early‑stable genetic contribution links directly to the policy and research implications of using genomic prediction (PGS) discussed in the existing idea.
Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – Manifold #102
Steve Hsu 2026.01.01 70% relevant
Hsu reviews 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic prediction and embryo screening that increase the predictive power and commercial use of polygenic scores at birth — directly connected to the existing idea that PGS can predict cognitive traits from birth and the attendant policy/ethical implications.
The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate
Scott Alexander 2025.12.03 85% relevant
The article reports WGS‑based analyses that close the gap between pedigree‑based and molecular heritability estimates (~88% capture). That directly affects claims about how much DNA‑based prediction (polygenic scores) can in principle explain traits like cognitive ability and therefore bears on the idea that genomic scores can be early predictors.
The new genetics of intelligence - PMC
2025.10.07 86% relevant
The review explicitly highlights genome‑wide polygenic scores that aggregate thousands of variants to explain a portion of intelligence’s heritability and to enable prediction from fixed DNA—aligning with the idea that PGS can forecast cognitive outcomes from birth.
Socio-economic status is a social construct with heritable components and genetic consequences | Nature Human Behaviour
2025.03.26 80% relevant
The authors review genomic research showing predictive power of polygenic scores and discuss implications for life‑course prediction and policy — linking to the existing idea that PGS can predict cognitive outcomes from birth and the societal ramifications of that fact.
Genetic variation, brain, and intelligence differences | Molecular Psychiatry
2021.02.02 70% relevant
The review details advances in GWAS, DNA-based heritability, genetic loci, and genetic correlations for intelligence, and discusses how polygenic methods are now used alongside brain imaging—laying the groundwork for later results that quantify PGS predictive power for intelligence from birth.
Genome-wide association meta-analysis in 269,867 individuals identifies new genetic and functional links to intelligence - PubMed
2018.07.07 75% relevant
Savage et al. (2018, Nat Genet) is one of the foundational large-scale GWAS of intelligence that produced genome-wide significant loci and functional annotations, enabling construction of IQ polygenic scores later shown to predict a meaningful share of variance from birth.
The new genetics of intelligence | Nature Reviews Genetics
2018.01.08 100% relevant
Key Points: 'Polygenic scores derived from GWAS of intelligence can now predict 4%… More than 10%… from GWAS of both intelligence and years of education' and 'they predict… from birth'.
Is Intelligence Hereditary? | Scientific American
2016.05.01 78% relevant
Plomin notes early large‑sample GWAS found loci explaining ~5% of variance in intelligence—directly connecting to the ongoing public debate about the predictive power and limits of polygenic scores for cognitive traits and their potential social uses or misuses.
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