Compare homicide rates within the same racial group across states rather than overall state averages. This reduces confounding from different population mixes and shows that places like Washington, D.C. can be far safer for whites (21% of national white rate) yet far deadlier for blacks (208% of national black rate), with Hispanics near average (113%). This lens can change how we judge state performance and policy impact.
— It reframes partisan crime claims by showing demographics drive much variation and that performance should be measured within groups, not only by aggregate rates.
Lorenzo Warby
2025.10.12
62% relevant
Like the call to compare homicide within demographic groups to reduce confounding, the article urges disaggregating the umbrella 'Black' category into specific ethnic lineages (ADOS vs Caribbean vs African) to get cleaner causal signals for violence and policy design.
Rod Dreher
2025.08.18
90% relevant
Dreher cites Steve Sailer’s CDC-based analysis of why red states show higher homicide rates, which aligns with comparing within-group victimization and demographic mix rather than blaming state policy in aggregate.
Steve Sailer
2025.08.18
100% relevant
DC whites at 21% of national white homicide rate vs DC blacks at 208%, with Missouri worst for blacks, using CDC 2018–2024 data.
Steve Sailer
2025.08.14
50% relevant
Daniel J. Eck’s Era Adjusted WAR explicitly controls for era and talent pool size to make fair cross-era comparisons, paralleling the within-group homicide approach that controls for demographic mix to reduce confounding.
Steve Sailer
2025.08.13
85% relevant
Sailer reports that since 2018 in Washington, D.C., blacks have been 97 times more likely per capita to be murdered than whites (1,241 vs 11 victims), reinforcing the lens that performance and risk should be compared within groups rather than only by citywide aggregates.
Steve Sailer
2025.08.13
70% relevant
By emphasizing that D.C. whites are rarely murdered while blacks bear nearly all victimization, the piece applies the within‑group lens to judge local safety and policy.
Inquisitive Bird
2025.08.11
60% relevant
Like the within-group crime lens, the article emphasizes group-specific risks: in the U.S. lifetime prison risk differs sharply by race (e.g., roughly 1/3 for Black men) and in Denmark conviction shares differ by origin (27% for non‑Western men by age 24 vs 9% native). This supports evaluating crime patterns within groups to avoid confounding by demographics.
Inquisitive Bird
2025.07.31
60% relevant
Like disaggregating crime by race within states to reduce confounding, this article disaggregates by immigrant status and origin across Nordic countries and shows disparities persist after controls (e.g., Denmark’s DST 2024 finding that even with age/sex/income adjustments, non‑Western immigrants—and especially descendants—remain overrepresented).